Global vegetable oil prices under pressure: Malaysian palm oil stocks rise

 

The main factors behind the price drop:

• Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 6.65% to 1.99 million tonnes at the end of May, the highest level since September 2024.
• Palm oil production in Malaysia in May: +5.05% m/m (up to 1.77 million tonnes ).
• Exports for May: +25.6% (to 1.39 million tons ), but this was not enough to compensate for the increase in production.

 

 

 

 

Prices and quotes

Product	Exchange/Place	Price	Week	Month
Palm oil (August)	Bursa Malaysia	3864 MYR/t (~913 $/t)	-1.8%	+0.5%
Soybean oil (July)	Chicago CBOT	$1053/t	+2.1%	-4.6%
Sunflower oil (India)	CIF Mumbai	$1200/t	0%	0%
Sunflower oil (Ukraine)	Black Sea ports	$1100/t	-1%	0%
Rapeseed oil (new harvest)	Expected from July	—	—	—

 

Demand and imports in India (May 2025)

Type of oil	Import growth m/m
Palm	+87%
Soybean	+10%
Sunflower	+2%

 

 

Key macro factors

• India reduced import duties on crude oil by 10%, which stimulated imports of cheap palm oil.
• Palm oil is traded at a discount of $100–150/t to soybean and sunflower oil, making it the most attractive to buyers.
• Oil World Forecast:
  • Indonesia will increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025 (+1 million tons year-on-year).
  • Production will increase to 47.8 million tons .

USA: Impact of Biofuels

• Investors disappointed by smaller-than-expected EPA biofuel quota increase :
  • 2026: 4.65 billion gallons
  • Alliance proposal: 5.25 billion gallons
  • Fact 2025: 3.35 billion

This led to a drop in speculative interest in soybean oil , despite positive trade signals with China.

 

Situation in Russia

• In the first 5 months of 2025, exports of sunflower oil from the Russian Federation decreased by 25% to 1.87 million tons , which confirms weak demand even for the cheapest product on the market.

 

Expectations for June-July 2025:

• The market will remain under strong pressure due to high inventories and the start of deliveries of new crop rapeseed oil .
• Palm oil is a key factor in the pressure on other types of vegetable oils.