World rapeseed prices are falling, but the demand for it in Ukraine remains high

Under the pressure of increased offers from European producers and falling soybean prices, February rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF during the week fell by 2.8% to €414.25/t (-2.4% for the month), but due to the strengthening of the exchange rate euro dollar prices decreased by 3.5% to $445.3/t.

March canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 1.8% for the week to CAD 598/t or $443/t (-3% for the month).

In Ukraine, rapeseed prices in the ports of the Black Sea remain at a high level of $370-380/t or UAH 16,300-16,600/t, as traders need to purchase trial lots amid a shortage of offers from producers. The number of traders buying rapeseed is decreasing, so its prices will also decrease in the near future.

Demand prices for deliveries to Germany and the Czech Republic during the week remained at the level of €400-410/t DAP, so deliveries towards the western border are very limited.

According to the Strategie Grains forecast, the EU will harvest 18.4 million tons of rapeseed in 2024/25, which is 1.4 million tons less than the previous season, as the rapeseed area will decrease by 0.36 million hectares to 5.6 million hectares.

Markets have not yet reacted to forecasts of a cut in EU rapeseed production in the new season, so forward rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain at €385/t DAP Germany, although August futures are trading at €413.25/t, the same as March .

Traders are awaiting a new report from the USDA, which may adjust Brazil's crop estimates, which will stop the fall in soybean and canola prices, although not lead to their strong growth.