World wheat prices fall due to improved harvest forecasts in the US and Russia

International wheat prices continue to fall under the pressure of favorable weather conditions in the United States and a revised harvest forecast in Russia. As of Monday, June 10, July wheat futures in the United States fell by 2.1-2.4% , and on the European exchange in Paris - by 1.5% .

 

USA: Improved crop conditions put pressure on quotes

According to the USDA weekly report for June 8:

• 4% of winter wheat areas were harvested (last year — 7%);
• 54% of winter wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (+2% per week, 47% last year);
• Spring wheat — 53% in good/excellent condition (–9% compared to last year).

Expected precipitation this week will further improve crop conditions, although it may temporarily delay the start of the winter wheat harvest.

 

July wheat futures in the US (June 10):

• SRW wheat (Chicago): $199.2/t (–2.4%, +0.6% for the week),
• HRW wheat (Kansas City): $197.5/t (–2.2%, –0.4% for the week),
• HRS wheat (Minneapolis): $228.7/t (–2.1%, –0.8% for the week).

 

EU and Russia: revision of forecasts

On the Euronext exchange (Paris), September futures fell to €201.75/t or $230/t (–1.5%) against the backdrop of an updated harvest forecast in the Russian Federation.

The analytical agency "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in 2025 to 82.8 million tons (+1.8 million tons), despite a decrease in the sown area by 0.4 million hectares (to 27.8 million hectares) due to a reduction in the area of spring wheat. The increase in the harvest is expected due to good conditions in the Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, despite the drought in the Rostov region.

A new global balance is also expected from the USDA on June 12 , which may include an increase in starting and ending stocks due to reduced export activity in the 2024/25 MY.

 

Export from Russia and Ukraine

According to Rusagrotrans estimates, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in June will amount to only 1.1 million tons , which is significantly less than the 4.64 million tons in June 2024. From July 2024 to May 2025, Russian exports amounted to about 42 million tons, against the USDA forecast of 43.5 million tons .

Ukraine exported 15 million tons of wheat as of June 9, which is 19% less than last year (17.84 million tons). By the end of the season, exports are expected to be at 15.4 million tons , while the USDA predicted 16 million tons .

 

Prices in Ukraine

During the week, domestic purchase prices for the old harvest decreased:

• food wheat — up to $222–225/t (10,500–10,600 UAH/t),
• feed wheat — up to $210–212/t (9,900–10,000 UAH/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Prices for new crop wheat remain $10–15/t lower , but sales activity is almost non-existent.