World wheat prices remain under supply pressure, although they continue to rise in Ukraine

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for food wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports due to a shortage of offers increased during the week by $5-8/t to $165-170/t or UAH 7,200-7,400/t. Prices for fodder wheat, against the background of a significant supply, remained at the level of $145-148/t, but prices in hryvnia increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 6250-6350 UAH/t thanks to the increase in the dollar exchange rate by 1.5%.

Export of wheat from Ukraine for March 1-18 amounted to 1.13 million tons, which is 15.8% higher than last year's corresponding figure. In total, 12.9 million tons of wheat were exported in 2023/24 MR, which is 5% ahead of last year's pace.

World wheat quotes were almost unchanged during the week, but yesterday May futures rose:

• by 2.7% to $199.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.9% for the week),
• by 1.3% to $210.8/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.6%),
• by 0.7% to $239.1/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-1.8%),
• by 1.1% to €197.25/t or $226.2/t - wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+1.9%).

Prices for European wheat support forecasts of a reduced crop in the EU and a worsening of crops in France. Strategie Grains experts reduced the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2024/25 FY by 1 million tons to 121.6 million tons (125.7 million tons in 2023/24 FY).

According to FranceAgriMer, the number of French soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition for the week decreased to 66% (88% last year), which is the worst figure in the last 4 years. Fall rains have reduced winter wheat acreage, and excessive rainfall in March may cause farmers to reduce acreage under spring wheat and barley in favor of corn, sorghum and sunflowers.

In Great Britain, as a result of heavy rains in autumn and winter, the wheat sowing area will decrease by 15% compared to last year to the lowest figure since 2020 - 1.46 million hectares, AHDB reports.

USDA's US Crop Tour showed that as of March 10, 53% of crops in Kansas were in good or excellent condition (17% last year and 35% 5-year average), and 73% in Louisiana (64% and 52%) , in Mississippi – 64% (57% and 52%), in Oklahoma – 65% (28% and 47%), in Texas – 44% (17% and 23%), in Arkansas – 54% (61% and 49% ).

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week of March 8-14 decreased by 54% to 302,000 tons, and in total in the season reached 13.74 million tons, which is 15.6% lower than last year's pace.

According to the State Customs Service, China imported 2.5 million tons of wheat in January-February, which is 17% less than the corresponding indicator of 2023.

Wheat prices remain under pressure from a large supply of the old crop, but forecasts of reduced supply in the new season are leading to a gradual increase in quotes for the new crop.