World wheat prices fell on the data on harvesting in the USA and the Russian Federation

Despite the news about the low yield in France, world wheat prices fell against the background of high harvesting rates and high yields of winter wheat in the USA and the Russian Federation.

In the US, on July 7, winter wheat was harvested on 63% of the area (52% on average over 5 years), and the yield exceeds last year, and the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 75% (47% last year ), which allows us to hope for a good harvest.

In 2024/25 MR (June), the USA exported 1.73 million tons of wheat, which is 13.7% higher than last year's pace.

Wheat is actively harvested in the south of the Russian Federation, and as of July 3, 13.1 million tons of grain were threshed from 2.95 million hectares or 10% of the area with an average yield of 4.4 tons/ha. For the week, the yield decreased by 10%, but it is still 19% higher than the figure for the same date in 2023.

July wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 3.6% to $203.2/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-0.2% for the week),
• by 3.9% to $210.7/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3.2%).
• by 2.6% to $226.9/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+0.7%),
• by 3.2% to €221.25/t or $239.6/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-1.6%).

According to the forecast of the Intercereales group and the Arvalis plant breeding institute, in France, due to excessively wet weather, the wheat yield in 2024 will decrease by 13% compared to last year to the lowest level since 2016 of 6.4 t/ha, which will be 11% inferior to the average of 10 annual indicator. However, this news did not support European wheat prices.

In Ukraine, on July 5, 1.62 million tons of wheat were harvested from 482.2 thousand hectares, or 11% of the area, with a yield of 3.36 tons/ha (3.35 tons/ha last year), while in 2023, at this time, threshing was only 51.4 thousand hectares or 1% of the area.

In 2024/25 MR (as of July 8), Ukraine exported 256,000 tons of wheat, compared with 212,000 tons for the same period last year.

Active export demand supports wheat prices at a high level. For food wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports, they offer UAH 8,600-8,900/t or $190-195/t, and for feed wheat - UAH 8,000-8,300/t or $175-180/t.

The first data on the harvesting of the new harvest indicate possible problems with grain quality: in regions with strong heat, there will be low nature, and with heavy precipitation at the beginning of harvesting - low protein.