World wheat prices are recovering after falling, but in Ukraine they continue to fall

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine continue to fall against the background of reduced export demand and increased competition from the Russian Federation and other Black Sea countries, although world quotations, after falling to a 3-year low, are gradually recovering, and during the week they increased by 1.4-3.4% on forecasts of a decrease in harvest in the EU.

 

In Ukraine, on August 2, 19.441 million tons of wheat were harvested from 4.466 million hectares with a yield of 4.35 tons/ha, which corresponds to the USDA's July forecast of 19.5 million tons.

 

During the week, the prices of food wheat fell by $1-2/t to $195-205/t or UAH 9,300-9,600/t, and for feed wheat - by $1-3/t to $175-180 /t or 8200-8300 hryvnias/t.

 

Export of wheat from Ukraine for August 1-5 amounted to only 79 thousand tons (156 thousand tons for this period last year), and in general in 2024/25 MR reached 1.517 (0.977) million tons.

 

September wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 0.7% to $199.33/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.4% for the week, -5% for the month),
• by 0.2% to $206.32/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.3%, -2.7%),
• by 0.8% to $217.7/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+2%, -4.3%),
• by 1.1% to €218.25/t or $238.2/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.4%, -4.6%).

 

In the USA, on August 4, winter wheat was harvested on 88% of the area (85% last year), and spring - on 6% (8% last year). In 2 months of 2024/25 MR, 3.539 million tons were exported, which is 15.68% ahead of last year's pace.

 

The representative of FAS USDA in the EU reduced the forecast of the wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 from 130 to 127.4 million tons, which will be 5.9% less than the 2023/24 (134.9 million tons) indicator due to a reduction in production in Germany. Hungary, Poland and Romania, and especially in France, to the smallest since 1983, 25 million tons.

 

According to the European Commission, wheat exports from the EU for July 29 - August 4 decreased by 14% compared to the previous week to 265,000 tons, and in total in the season reached 2.18 million tons, which is 39% lower than last year's pace.

 

In July, the Russian Federation exported (in particular to EAEU countries) 3.6 million tons of wheat, which is inferior to 5 million tons in July 2023, but by 0.5 million tons it exceeds the 5-year average (3.1 million tons).

 

On August 12, the Egyptian GASC will hold an international tender for the purchase of 3.8 million tons of wheat on an FOB basis with payment in 270 days, which can significantly support world wheat prices.