World prices for new harvest wheat are rising, but remain stable in Ukraine for now

As the May wheat futures expiration date approaches (mid-May), traders are increasingly shifting to trading the new wheat crop, so July futures continue to rise in price, especially against the backdrop of adverse weather and forecasts of a reduced harvest in the US.

 

According to the USDA's crop condition report, the U.S. crop condition remained at 30% good or excellent for the week (49% last year), despite the rains in the Midwest. However, the U.S. spring wheat planted area was only 19% of the planned area (28% a year ago and 22% on average over the past 5 years) due to dry and cold weather in the Plains.

 

Yesterday, July wheat futures in the US rose:

• by 2.1% to $231.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+4.1% per week),
• by 0.5% to $248.1/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City, (+4.2%)
• by 0.2% to $255.6/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+4.1%),

Meanwhile, August wheat futures on Euronext in Paris remained unchanged at €209/t or $244.8/t (+1%).

 

No precipitation is forecast for the Southern and Northern Plains next week, which will continue to reduce the area sown in favor of late crops.

 

According to the US Department of Agriculture, wheat exports from the US during April 16-23 decreased by 30% compared to the previous week to 365.2 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 21.86 million tons, which is 24.7% lower than the pace of the previous season.

 

In Ukraine, shelling of ports has intensified again, and damage to ships has been recorded on the approach to Black Sea ports, which will reduce demand for Ukrainian wheat.

 

Over the past week, export purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine remained at the level of 10,800–11,000 UAH/t or $218–222/t, and for feed wheat – within 10,550–10,700 UAH/t or $214–216/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, as prices for Russian wheat are also stable, and Russian exporters are competing aggressively, having significant stocks and forecasts of a good harvest in the new season.

 

Dry and warm weather is expected in Ukraine in the next 7-10 days, which will facilitate the sowing and development of winter crops, but the lack of precipitation will negatively affect plant vegetation.

 

In the southwestern region of the Russian Federation, the weather will be more favorable, as significant rainfall will improve the potential for winter wheat harvests.

 

Forecasts of reduced harvests in Australia, Argentina and the USA will remain the main speculative factors supporting quotes in the coming months, but it should be noted that the tender in Saudi Arabia demonstrated a significant number of wheat offers on the market with prices at the March level.