World prices for wheat rose slightly, and export demand in Ukraine increased

Demand for wheat on global exchanges is still low, but the switch to March futures trading led to higher prices, which were further supported by increased export sales in the US and rainfall in Australia.

On Friday, March wheat futures rose:

• by 1.9% to $223.9/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0.7% to $238/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.4% to $269.1/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1.1% to €228.75/t or $248.8/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

According to the USDA, export sales of wheat from the United States for November 17-23 reached a 6-month high of 622.8 thousand tons, and physical shipments - 340 thousand tons, thanks to which total exports in FY 2023/24 amounted to 7.9 million tons (or 41.5% of the projected USDA 19 million tons) with total sales of 12.7 million tons.

More than 50% of Australia's wheat crop has been harvested, but 200mm of rain fell in parts of New South Wales and 80mm in parts of Victoria last week, damaging nearly 100,000 hectares of crops. Analysts believe that because of this, the quality of more than 1 million tons of wheat will decrease to fodder quality.

According to the BAGE exchange, in Argentina, wheat has been threshed on 36.4% of the area, and the average yield has increased to 2.16 t/ha, as a result of which production forecasts may increase.

In Kazakhstan, against the background of unfavorable weather, the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest decreased. According to official data, 11.3 million tons of wheat were collected, of which 38.7% or 1.7 million tons were accepted at the elevators as non-class, and 35.1% or 1.5 million tons - 3rd class. Therefore, the country's authorities plan to introduce an export duty on wheat and allow its import from the Russian Federation.

Refinitiv Commodities Research experts lowered the forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 FY by 0.7 million tons to 127.3 million tons compared to 127.7 million tons in 2022/23 FY.

In Ukraine, prices for feed wheat continued to rise last week against the background of increased export demand and restraint of sales by producers. Purchase prices rose by UAH 100-200/t to UAH 5,900-6,000/t or $145-146/t delivered to the port, but further growth will be limited by low demand from the EU and higher freight costs for transportation to China.