World production of oilseeds in 2020/21 MG to 20 million tonnes higher than last year's level

In a December report, USDA FAS global balance of supply and demand of oilseeds is almost unchanged compared to November, while analysts had expected a notable reduction in forecast soybean crop in South America.

the Forecast of world oil production decreased by 1.6 million tonnes to 595,68 million tonnes (576,44 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to reduced soybean harvest in Argentina by 1 million tonnes and production of sunflower and cotton, which will be offset by the increased production of rapeseed and peanut.

Evaluation of world exports increased by 1 million tonnes to 192 million tonnes due to increase in exports of canola from Australia and soybeans from Canada and Uruguay. Forecasts imports of soybean and rapeseed has increased thanks to higher demand from Pakistan after the reduction in the supply of cotton and increased imports by Algeria.

the Forecast of world ending stocks of oilseeds decreased by 0.81 million tonnes to 97,76 million tonnes compared to 110,68 MMT in 2019/20 Mr.

In comparison with the previous report, the estimate for world soybean production is reduced 0.6 million tons to 362,05 million tonnes (337,14 million tonnes in 2019/20 Mr), in particular, for Argentina by 1 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes, whereas for Brazil it was left unchanged at 133 million tonnes, though experts of the local Agency Conab lowered its forecast by 0.5 million tonnes to 134,45 million tons.

the Forecast of world consumption of soybeans increased by 0.7 million tonnes to 369,7 million tonnes compared to 352 million tonnes in 2019/20 Mr and 343,55 million tonnes in 2018/19 Mr. The forecast of soybean for Argentina has been reduced by 1 million tonnes, whereas for the U.S. increased 0.5 million tons For China, estimates of consumption and imports of soybeans was left unchanged.

the Estimate of world ending stocks of soybeans in 2020/21 MG decreased by 0.88 million tonnes to 85,64 million tons (96 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to losses in the U.S. due to strong exports and increased recycling.

the Data of the December USDA report and report data on weekly export sales of soybeans has not coincided with forecasts of analysts, which led to a slight decrease in soybean prices.

Yesterday on the stock exchange, the U.S. soybean futures fell 0.3% to 426,3 $/ton, while soybean oil gained 0.5% to 835 $/t.

Neutral USDA report and a slowdown in demand will increase pressure on prices of oilseeds, particularly in the case of improving weather in South America.