Global biofuel production could grow by almost 70% by 2030

Global biofuel production could increase by almost 70% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, with producing countries increasingly using biofuels in response to the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East, according to a joint study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).

 

Biofuels, including ethanol, can be produced from a variety of organic feedstocks, but a significant portion of them continue to be produced from food or feed crops. Bioethanol and biodiesel are traditionally added to gasoline and diesel fuel, and their competitiveness is increasing with the rise in oil prices.

 

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and the European Union have tightened requirements for the mandatory use of biofuels since the conflict began.

According to analysts, if the proposed mandates are fully implemented, the area of land needed to grow biofuel feedstock could more than double the 2023 level by 2030.

This will require an additional 36 million hectares of agricultural land — an area roughly equal to the size of Germany.

 

The growth of biofuels could significantly affect the global food and feed balance, especially first-generation biofuels, which are produced from corn, sugarcane, and other traditional crops.

In contrast, second-generation biofuels are produced mainly from organic residues and waste, in particular used cooking oil, which reduces competition between energy and food use of raw materials.

 

The study authors warn that the rapid increase in biofuel mandates could lead to a rise in demand for agricultural inputs faster than systems for certification, environmental monitoring, and land-use planning can develop.

In their opinion, the production of feedstock for first-generation biofuels generally poses negative risks for land degradation, food security, and water resource use.

 

An additional factor for the agricultural market was the sharp increase in energy prices. Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East in late February, crude oil prices have increased by almost 40%, while sugar and corn prices have increased by 20%.

 

Further expansion of biofuel production could increase demand for corn, sugar, vegetable oils, and other agricultural commodities, creating additional price support, especially in the event of adverse weather conditions or other supply problems.