Strategie Grains Lowers Wheat Harvest Forecast for the EU as Harvest Begins

In its June forecast, Strategie Grains lowered the 2024/25 marketing year soft wheat harvest estimate for the European Union by 1.7 million tons to 121.8 million tons, marking a four-year low due to lower yields at the start of the harvest. The wheat and barley harvest began this month in southern Europe, and so far, yield indicators have been mixed, reports Strategie Grains.

 

The forecast for the EU soft wheat harvest is 3.6% lower than last year’s volume and will be the lowest since the 2020/21 season, which was also affected by heavy rains during the growing season.

 

Strategie Grains expects the largest decline in production compared to last season to occur in France due to heavy rains, with soft wheat sowing down by more than 7%. A reduction in production is also expected in Germany, Poland, and Hungary.

 

The consultancy also lowered its forecast for the EU barley harvest this year to 52.2 million tons from 53.0 million tons last month, although this will still be 10% higher than last year’s drought-affected barley harvest of 47.5 million tons.

 

Strategie Grains reduced its forecast for the EU corn harvest this year to 62.6 million tons from 63.3 million, which remains consistent with last year's level.

 

In Spain, which is recovering from severe drought last year, initial yield results in the south have been good, but levels are expected to decline as the harvest progresses north, the report states.

 

Yield results in Romania have so far been mixed, near average in Slovenia and Croatia, but disappointing in northern Italy, the company added.

Experts predict that Romania will harvest a record 10.45 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year, slightly below the forecast made earlier this year.

 

It is worth noting that the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture predicts that favorable weather will lead Bulgaria to increase wheat production to 6.9 million tons despite a 4% reduction in wheat planting areas.

 

A smaller expected harvest in the EU combined with an anticipated reduction in Black Sea supplies is expected to significantly reduce EU stocks from this season’s high level to a “rather fragile” level in 2024/25, the consultancy reports.