Strategie Grains raised its sunflower production forecast and left its EU rapeseed harvest estimate unchanged

In a Friday report, Strategie Grains increased its forecast for sunflower production in the EU in 2025/26 MY from 10.5 to 10.6 million tons (which will exceed the 2024/25 MY by 26%) compared to February estimates, and left the forecast for rapeseed production at 19 million tons (which will exceed the 2024/25 MY by 13%), as favorable weather conditions have a positive effect on the development of oilseed crops, and a wave of precipitation will improve the prospects for the rapeseed harvest in eastern Europe.

Typically, rapeseed in Europe is sown in late summer and autumn, while sunflowers and soybeans are sown in spring.

Last year, adverse weather conditions, such as heavy rains and abnormal heat, severely reduced the EU's oilseed harvest, reducing supplies of rapeseed and sunflower.

According to Strategie Grains, rapeseed prices have additional potential to rise until the end of June, as the situation in the EU in 2024/25 will remain tense for both rapeseed and rapeseed oil.

Instead, the agency considers sunflower prices in the EU to be overstated, so they may decrease slightly to stimulate processing.

At the same time, according to Strategie Grains forecasts, soybean prices in the EU will not undergo significant changes, given the expected stability of world prices and the balanced situation in the EU.