StatCan forecasts record increase in canola acreage in Canada due to decline in wheat acreage

Statistics Canada StatCan, in a new report, significantly adjusted estimates of the area sown to major agricultural crops in Canada in the 2026/27 MY, increasing them for oilseeds and reducing them for grains and legumes.

The estimate of canola acreage has been unexpectedly raised to a record high due to a significant reduction in wheat acreage, despite a spring delay in planting. Farmers believe that the launch of new biofuel production capacity will increase demand for rapeseed and the market will no longer depend on canola exports to China.

According to StatCan's forecast, canola plantings will increase by 8.4% compared to the previous year to a record 23.4 million acres, but production will remain at last year's level of 22 million tons (17.8 million tons in 2024/25 MY) due to lower yields.

Wheat plantings will decrease by 5.9% to 25.33 million acres, with spring wheat down 3.9% to 18.067 million acres and durum wheat down 10.3% to 5.86 million acres. Total wheat production will be 6-10% below last year's record, at 35-36 million tonnes.

The area sown with the following crops will also increase (compared to last year):

• grain corn - by 4.8% to 4 million acres,
• soybeans - up 3.1% to 6.0 million acres,
• barley - by 9.3% to 6.7 million acres.

At the same time, the area under

• oats - by 15.1% to 2.5 million acres,
• peas - by 13.7% to 3.0 million acres,
• lentils - by 10.9% to 3.9 million acres.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, July canola futures rose 0.7% yesterday to 741 CAD/t or $521/t, while November futures fell 1.2% to 735 CAD/t (-6.8% month-on-month) amid an increase in the forecast of sowing areas and favorable weather conditions in Canada in the coming week.