StatCan forecasts a decrease in wheat, barley and soybean yields in 2025, and an increase in canola and corn yields in Canada compared to last year

Statistics Canada (StatCan) updated its 2025/26 crop production forecasts in a report dated August 28, based on the latest yield estimates using satellite imagery and agro-climatic data. Canola, grain corn, oats and lentils are projected to increase in 2025, while spring wheat, durum wheat, soybeans and barley are projected to decrease compared to 2024.

Canada is expected to see a decrease in production compared to last year:

• wheat - by 1.1% to 35.5 million tons due to a 1.2% decrease in yield to 49.6 bushels/acre (although the sowing area will grow by 0.1% to 26.3 million acres), in particular spring wheat - by 2% to 26 million tons, and durum wheat - by 4.7% to 6.1 million tons,
• barley - by 1.9% to 8.0 million tons due to a 6.7% reduction in area to 5.5 million acres, partially offset by a 5.2% increase in yield to 66.5 bushels/acre,
• soybeans - by 7.3% to 7 million tons due to a yield decrease of 8.5% to 45.0 bushels/acre, despite an increase in sowing area by 1.3% to 5.7 million acres.

At the same time, an increase in the production of the following crops is predicted:

• canola - up 3.6% to 19.9 million tons due to a 5.7% increase in yield to 41.0 bushels/acre, which offsets a 2% decrease in plantings to 21.4 million acres,
• Corn for grain - by 1.4% to 15.6 million tons due to an increase in sowing area by 3.1% to 3.7 million acres, although the yield will decrease by 1.7% to 165.9 bushels/acre.

The report surprised the market with a sharp increase in the canola harvest forecast, although analysts had expected a decrease in the estimate due to dry conditions in the eastern region and a decrease in the area sown.

The final harvest report in Canada will be released in December and will include data from farmers.