StatCan predicts record wheat and canola harvests in Canada in 2025, adding pressure to quotes

Statistics Canada (StatCan) sharply raised its wheat, canola and barley production forecasts for the 2025/26 MY in a report dated December 4. While in September, spring wheat, durum wheat and barley yields were forecast to decrease compared to 2024 (the assessment was made using satellite images), in the December report, based on farmer surveys, wheat, canola and barley yield forecasts were raised to record levels.

Favorable conditions in Western Canada led to record high yields and crop production, while in Eastern Canada yields were at or below last year's levels.

It is predicted that in 2025, the production of wheat, barley, canola, oats and lentils will increase, while corn and soybeans will decrease.

It is expected that production of the following crops will increase compared to last year:

• wheat - by 11.2% to a record 40 million tons (which will exceed the previous record set in 2013), in particular spring wheat - by 10.3% to 29.3 million tons, durum - by 11.8% to 7.1 million tons, winter wheat - by 17.0% to 3.6 million tons;
• canola - up 13.3% to a record 21.8 million tonnes (which will exceed the previous record set in 2017) due to an increase in yield to 44.4 bushels/acre. Thus, in Saskatchewan, yield increased by 15.9% to 44.4 bushels/acre, harvested area - by 0.7% to 12.1 million acres, and total production - by 16.7% to 12.2 million tonnes. In Alberta, canola production increased by 13.4% to 6.3 million tonnes, as a 16.1% increase in yield to 45.4 bushels/acre offset a 2.3% decrease in planted area to 6.2 million acres. In Manitoba, harvested area decreased by 8.9% from the previous year to 3.0 million acres, but yield increased by 11.4% to 44.8 bushels/acre, resulting in production increasing by 1.6% to 3.1 million tonnes;
• barley - by 19.4% to 9.7 million tons due to a 25.6% increase in yield to 79.4 bushels/acre, which compensated for a 4.9% decrease in harvested area to 5.6 million acres;
• oats - up 16.7% to 3.9 million tons due to an increase in harvested area by 5.6% to 2.6 million acres and a yield of 10.6% to 98.1 bushels/acre.

At the same time, a decrease in the production of the following crops is predicted:

• grain corn - by 3.1% to 14.9 million tonnes due to a 3.9% yield decrease to 162.2 bushels/acre due to dry growing conditions in parts of Eastern Canada, where most corn is grown, although the harvested area increased by 0.7% to 3.6 million acres;
• soybeans - by 10.2% to 6.8 million tons due to a yield decrease of 11.4% to 43.5 bushels/acre, despite an increase in planted area by 1.4% to 5.7 million acres.

Traders expected an increase in canola crop forecasts in Canada, so January canola futures fell 4.3% to 625 CAD/t or 448 $/t (-2.4% month-on-month), but the data turned out to be higher than analysts expected, so the price decline will continue and increase pressure on rapeseed quotes in Paris.

The wheat harvest estimate of 40 million tons also turned out to be higher than the USDA's November forecast of 37 million tons, which, against the background of increased crop forecasts in Australia, will improve the global wheat balance in the USDA's December report and lead to a decrease in wheat quotes.