StatCan unexpectedly lowers forecast for canola acreage in Canada

StatCan (Statistics Canada) has released an updated report on the 2025/26 MY crop area, according to which:

 

Canola:

• Crop area forecast lowered to 21.46 million acres :
  • 0.9% less than the March estimate,
  • 2.5% less than in 2024/25 MY,
  • 1.2% below the 5-year average .
• The main reasons for the reduction: doubts about conditions on the prairies and trade difficulties.
• Despite the decrease in area, the forecast for canola production increased to 19.2 million tons (versus 17.8 million tons in 2024/25 MY).

 

Other oilseed crops:

• Flax :
  • Sown areas increased sharply to 620 thousand acres (in March it was 448 thousand, last year - 503 thousand).
• Mustard :
  • Sowings increased 19.6% to 360,000 acres , but still well below last year's 606,000 acres.

 

Wheat:

• Total wheat area: 26.65 million acres (about the same as last year).
• However, this is 2% less than forecast in March.
• Spring wheat : 18.81 million acres (–3.2% through March, slightly down from last year).
• Durum wheat : 6.53 million acres (+2.5% through March, +2.6% through last year).
• Winter wheat : 1.58 million acres (+18% over last year).

While canola acreage was expected to increase due to high prices, farmers have shifted to other crops due to weather risks and trade uncertainty, which could impact the overall oilseed market dynamics in the new season.