The US will try to unblock the Strait of Hormuz today, which will either collapse oil prices or reactivate the hot phase of the war with Iran

Over the weekend, talks took place between the US and Iran, which delivered a 14-point plan for peace through Pakistan. But Trump said the plan did not meet US conditions on Iran's nuclear program.

Later, information appeared that Iran had changed its negotiating position and was ready to discuss the nuclear issue immediately. It agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.5% and reduce its stockpiles, and also softened the requirements for the American military presence. In exchange, Tehran asked to lift the naval blockade and promised to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday, markets were preparing for the imposition of a prolonged naval blockade of Iran (until it agrees to US conditions), so oil prices ended the week at their highest levels since the start of the war with Iran.

July Brent crude futures fell 2.2% to $108/barrel on Friday (+9.2% for the week), while June WTI crude futures fell 2.9% to $102/barrel (+8.4% for the week).

On Sunday night, Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a naval mission to escort ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz that will begin on Monday. He warned that any interference would be met with “force.” The move comes amid a fragile truce between the United States and Iran, which has warned that it would consider any U.S. intervention a violation of the truce.

On his Truth Social page, Trump said that “countries from all over the world, almost all of whom are not involved in the Middle East dispute,” have asked the United States to release ships “blocked” in the key strait. He added, “They are simply neutral and innocent observers! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these countries that we will safely remove their ships from these restricted waterways so that they can go about their business freely and boldly.”

The Iranians responded that they did not agree to this and would not make any concessions until the American blockade was lifted, and that the steps announced by the United States would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. At the same time, the IRGC had already ordered all ships that were standing near Ras al-Khaimah waiting for the strait to open to move further into the Gulf to Dubai.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the status quo that existed before the war with the US and Israel. The Iranian draft law includes a permanent ban on the passage of Israeli ships and a ban on transit for countries considered "hostile" because they are US allies.

Today, there will either be an escalation of the war, or, if the strait is unblocked by force, Iran will still be forced to sign an agreement with the US.