Favorable weather in Australia has allowed to raise wheat and barley crop forecasts

The official agency ABARES, thanks to good rainfall in the main growing regions, raised the forecast for the wheat harvest in Australia in 2024/25 MR by 2.7 million tons to 31.8 million tons, which will exceed the 26 million tons harvested last year and the 10-year average by 22% . The wheat export forecast has been lowered to 20.9 million tons, which will be 7% less than the 2023/24 FY, but 10% higher than the 10-year average.

In the August USDA report, the wheat harvest forecast in Australia was increased by 1 to 30 million tons, and exports to 23 million tons.

ABARES experts raised the forecast for barley production in 2024/25 to 12.2 million tons, which will exceed last year's harvest by 13%, and the average 10-year indicator by 7%.

The canola harvest was estimated at 5.5 million tons, which would be 8% less than the 2023 harvest, but 22% higher than the 10-year average.

According to Reuters, local analysts estimate Australia's 2024/25 wheat crop at 30.25-36 million tonnes, with the median estimate at 31.1 million tonnes, as rains in key growing regions improved wheat yields. Analysts estimate the barley harvest at 11.6 million tons, and rapeseed at 55 million tons.

Western Australia, the country's largest producer of wheat, was in a severe drought, and it wasn't until June that the rains started. The improved weather has had a beneficial effect on wheat crops, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, where plants are at a key stage of development ahead of harvest, which starts in October.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts above-normal temperatures in all regions over the coming months and above-average rainfall in September.