Speculative swings in wheat quotes continue, but in Ukraine prices remain under pressure from low demand and increased corn supply

On Friday, September 4, wheat quotes on US exchanges fell by 2.8-5.8%, as traders began to book profits ahead of the long weekend (Labor Day in the US on Monday) after active growth in recent weeks amid talks by the US delegation in Kyiv and Moscow, which give hope for a truce and the resumption of exports from the Black Sea region.

Given Friday's decline, wheat quotes on US exchanges fell by 2.6-5.7% for the week after a sharp increase of 4.2-11.2% the week before last. And this week we expect quotes to stabilize in anticipation of the updated world balance from the USDA and subdued demand from importers.

September US wheat futures fell for the week:

• by 5.7% to $263.1/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 4.2% to $289.1/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2.6% to $264.6/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• while soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris rose 1.7% to €241/t or $280/t.

It should be noted that December futures for American wheat are traded $7-8/t more expensive than September futures, and for European wheat - €8.25/t more expensive.

In the 2026/27 MY, wheat export sales from the USA as of September 3 amounted to 8.66 million tons, which is 31% lower than the corresponding figure last year, indicating a decrease in demand, even despite the suspension of exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Saudi Arabia has canceled an international tender to purchase 535,000 tons of durum wheat due to excessively high bid prices, the country's General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said.

In Ukraine, export demand for wheat remains subdued, and traders are only interested in food wheat, while demand for feed wheat is practically non-existent, especially against the backdrop of the approaching high corn harvest. During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Danube ports increased by $1-3/t to $163-172/t or 8200-8600 UAH/t for food wheat and by 7500-8000 UAH/t or 150-155 $/t for feed wheat, and demand prices for food wheat on the Ukrainian-Romanian border increased by $2-5/t to $155-160/t or 8200-8400 UAH/t, while prices with delivery to Constanta (Romania) remain at the level of $250-255/t.

Processors in Ukraine maintain demand prices for food wheat at the level of 6,700-7,200 UAH/t with delivery to the mill and purchase mainly high-quality grade 2 wheat.

The cost of delivering wheat to ports in Romania or Poland for further export continues to rise as more and more customers realize that the blockade of sea exports from Ukraine will be prolonged, so some cargo from Black Sea ports is already being moved to inland elevators or to Danube ports, which increases competition for available logistics routes. The start of harvesting sunflower, soybean and corn will reduce the availability of cars and maximize the need for wagons for export, so we expect a further decline in domestic wheat prices, especially against the background of restrained demand from importers.