Speculative growth of quotations on wheat ended with the collapse of 2.5-3.3 percent

2020-12-15 12:11:23
Machine translation
Speculative growth of quotations on wheat ended with the collapse of 2.5-3.3 percent

After rapid growth of quotations of wheat on the markets yesterday, traders massive profits and actively selling futures, which led to a sharp decline in prices of 2.5% to 3.3% on Monday as European and U.S. exchanges.


According to information from Russia, the quota on wheat exports from Russia may reach 17.5 million tons from 15 February until 1 July 2021 may be tariff – this means that delivery within the quota will be taxed at € 25 per ton, and the supply of grain on top of quotas to limit the fee in the amount of 50% of the customs value, but not below 100 euros per tonne.
Talk of quotas and fees continues to reduce trading activity of traders who reduce the purchase price, which is already reducing projections of wheat exports from Russia in December, according to SovEcon, the export of wheat from Russia in December may be about 3.4 million tons against 4.22 million tons in November.


the U.S. wheat Market began the trading week with a drop in prices of March futures. Traders believed that Russia is in the remaining 2 months before the introduction of quotas and export duties on wheat will be engaged in aggressive export of grain, and the States in this situation there is little "Shine".


a Cold shower for speculators became statistics of wheat exports from the United States, because over the last week, shipments fell by 51% to 261 thousand tons, and although China was a major recipient of wheat (38%) is not inspired traders.

wheat Exports from the United States since the beginning of the season made up of 13.73 million tonnes, which is 1.2% higher than last year's pace.


March quotes of the American wheat have decreased:


  • soft Wheat SRW in Chicago for $ 219,17 of 6.61 to $ / ton
  • the
  • hard Wheat HRW in Kansas city for $ 206,59 of 6.98 to $ / ton
  • the
  • hard Wheat HRS in Minneapolis by $ 204,84 of 4.59 to $ / ton.


Wheat area of Paris and Chicago, sobered up from 2-day the euphoria generated by the project introduction of export duties on Russian wheat. Traders understood that prior to the actions of the Russian restrictions still plenty of time and an easy life for the European exports of soft wheat for these 2 months will not.

the March quotations of milling wheat on the Paris stock exchange MATIF fell by €4.25 to 206,25 €/ton (250,84 $/tonne).


the EU plus the UK exported over the past week about 305 thousand tons of wheat, while the leading exports are the countries of Baltic and Poland, and with the beginning of the season wheat exports from the EU reached 11,607 million tons of soft wheat, which is 17% less than on the same date in season 2019/20. Share of France in the European exports increased to 26,2% due to the growing volume of shipments of French wheat to China, where already shipped 1,356 million tons, 64.4% more than in the same period last year.


Import soft wheat in the EU is also gradually slowing down since the beginning of the season amounted to 1,254 million tons, 8% more than in the same period of the season 2019/20 (11% more than in the previous week).


Grain Agency GASC Egypt today, December 15, will hold a tender for the purchase of at least 55-60 thousand tons of milling wheat for delivery 01-15 February 2021, which will become an additional factor supporting the price of Russian wheat which will be actively offered in this tender as the delivery time even before the introduction of quotas and duties. This in turn will force traders to lower prices to win the tender and increase the volume of purchases from the GASC.


Jordan also issued a tender for purchase of 120 TMT of wheat for June-July, which will be held until December 23, and will be a good marker prices for new crop wheat.

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