Sunflower in Ukraine continues to fall in price against the background of falling prices for meal and oil

The decrease in world prices for vegetable oils, significant stocks of raw materials at processing plants and almost no export demand lower sunflower prices in Ukraine. Accelerating soybean harvests in Brazil and improving weather in Argentina are putting upward pressure on soybean oil prices, leading to lower prices in neighboring palm and sunflower oil markets.

March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange during the week fell 3.5% to $1,004/t (-3% for the month) against the background of an increase in the volume of processing and stocks of soybean oil in the United States.

According to NOPA, the processing of soybeans in the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year to a record 5.06 million tons in January compared to the same period in 203, and soybean oil stocks increased by 10.8% compared to December. % to 684.2 thousand tons.

Demand prices for sunflower oil during the week remained at $825/t with delivery to buyers, but in Ukraine, demand prices fell to $735-740/t with delivery to ports and $780/t with delivery to Bulgaria.

According to APC-Inform, in January Ukraine reduced the amount of sunflower processing by 10% compared to December to 1.4 million tons, which was 36% higher than in January 2023. In general, in 2023/24, sunflower processing increased to 6.5 million tons, which exceeded last year's rates by 9% and accounted for 53% of the forecasted processing volume for this season.

Despite the high rate of sunflower oil exports in February, processors began to lower their purchase prices for sunflower amid falling oil prices and rising logistics costs towards the western borders.

During the week, sunflower prices fell by UAH 200-500/t to UAH 14,300-16,000/t with delivery to the plant, but sometimes processors raised the price to buy the required lots. In general, factories have stocks of raw materials for several months, so processors will continue to buy sunflowers at low prices, especially in the event of further declines in meal and oil prices.

The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has already issued the first licenses for the export of sunflowers under the simplified system, but this is unlikely to activate exports. Demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Bulgaria fell by $10-15/t to $420-425/t, which, even against the backdrop of a reduction in the duty on sunflower exports to the EU from 2.6% to 1.8% of the export price, does not exceed 13,500-14,000 hryvnias/t per FCA - economy due to the increase in the cost of logistics due to the blocking of the border with Poland.

Demand prices for sunflower meal at the port decreased to $160-170/t, and will continue to fall in the near future under the pressure of falling world prices for corn and fodder wheat, as well as increasing supplies of soybean meal from Argentina.