Soybean prices remain under pressure from active harvest in Brazil and falling processing volumes in the US

During the week, May soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade traded steadily at $373.1/t (-3.9% month-on-month), failing to react to the reduction in US processing in February, the high rate of soybean harvest in Brazil and the increase in soybean oil stocks. May soybean oil futures even rose by 1.2% yesterday to $927/t, but overall lost 13.3% of their price over the month.

According to the NOPA association, soybean processing in the US in February decreased by 11.1% compared to January to 4.84 million tons (although analysts estimated it at 5.04 million tons), which is 4.5% lower than the figure in February 2024. Soybean oil stocks increased by 17.95% to 681 thousand tons, which is 11.06% lower than the corresponding figure in 2024.

AgRural reports that as of March 13, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 70% of the area, which is significantly ahead of last year's pace (63%).

During March 7-13, soybean exports from the United States decreased by 8% compared to the previous week to 646.7 thousand tons, of which 420.2 thousand tons were purchased by China. In total, soybean exports in the 2024/25 MY (as of March 13) amounted to 39.1 million tons, which is 9.3% ahead of last year's pace. To achieve the USDA forecast, only 10.6 million tons of soybeans need to be shipped by the end of the season.

China is actively shipping soybeans purchased from the US before the tariffs were imposed, and is also increasing purchases from Brazil, which will greatly reduce demand for American soybeans starting in April.

In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports increased by $2-3/t during the week to $385-388/t or UAH 18,100-18,200/t against the backdrop of reduced supply and the need to form export batches, but processors with sufficient raw material reserves are buying soybeans at much lower prices.

Traders note that export demand for soybeans remains low and do not expect it to grow in the coming months.