Soybean quotes rose 3% on data from the USDA's October report

In an October report, USDA experts lowered their forecast for global soybean production and stocks, and raised their estimate of consumption, leading to a sharp rise in quotes after a long decline.

November soybean futures in Chicago rose 3% to $474/t yesterday, although they remain 4.7% lower than a month ago and 5.4% lower than a year ago due to buoyant soybean exports from Brazil and low export demand for soybeans in the USA.

Compared to the September estimates , the balance of soybeans for 2023/24 MR underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 1.1 to 101.89 (99.13) million tons due to the adjustment of data for 2022/23 MR.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 1.83 to 399.5 (370.24) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 1.14 to 111.7 (116.22) million tons due to a decrease in productivity from 3.36 to 3.33 (3.32) t/ha, while for other large countries - producers, the estimates were left unchanged.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.18 to 168.24 (170.86) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 1 to 47.8 (54.2) million tons, while for Brazil it was increased by 0.5 to 97, 5 (95.5) million tons.
• The forecast of global ending stocks has been reduced by 3.63 to 115.62 million tons (101.89 million tons in 2022/23 FY, 99.7 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 100.3 million tons in 2020/21 FY), although analysts estimate them at 119.71 million tons. In China, against the background of a decrease in initial reserves by 1 million tons and an increase in consumption by 1 to 120 (115.7) million tons, final reserves will grow by 2 million tons. For the United States, the estimate of reserves has been reduced by 1.6 to 78.4 (65.2) million tons.