Soybean quotes fall on forecasts of an increase in planted areas in Brazil

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1.2% to $472.8/t yesterday (0% for the week, -1% for the month) amid dry weather and a delayed rainy season in central Brazil, which farmers may reduce acreage under corn in favor of soybeans.

According to the AgRural agency, as of October 19 in Brazil, 30% of the planned area was sown with soybeans (34% last year), and 30% with first-harvest corn. Planting is slowest in the central regions, which suffer from heat and drought. Conab experts predict that the area under corn in the country will decrease by 5% to 21.04 million hectares, and under soybeans will grow by 2.5% to 45.32 million hectares (44.11 million hectares in 2022/23MR), respectively, the harvest of soybeans in 2023/24 MR will increase by 5% to a record 162-164 million tons.

Despite low soybean prices in Brazil, farmers are expanding soybean acreage as corn prices are even lower. From February to August, the country exported 80 million tons of soybeans, compared to 64 million tons for the same period in 2022.

Exports of soybeans from the United States for the week of October 13-19 increased by 9% to 2.46 million tons, and the total for the season reached 7.89 million tons, which is only 3.3% higher than last year's pace, although a week ago the pace of deliveries was ahead of last year's by 14.5%.

According to NASS USDA data, as of October 22, soybeans in the US were harvested in 76% of the area, which is 9% higher than the 5-year average.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for soybeans rose to UAH 15,000-15,500/t or $350-370/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and to $370-375/t with delivery to Danube ports, where the authorities block cash purchases. At the same time, demand prices with delivery to Romania and Poland remained at $380-390/t, and to Italy - $420-430/t.