MARS monitoring service has lowered all crop forecasts for 2026

The MARS monitoring service, in a July report, lowered its harvest forecasts for all crops for 2026 due to abnormal heat and warned of the possibility of further reductions in estimates if dry and hot weather persists in western Europe.

 

This season, Europe has been hit by several heat waves, which have led to drought, reduced water supplies and severe forest fires. They have also shortened the grain filling phase of winter crops and accelerated the harvest, which is already complete in southern regions.

 

Compared to June estimates, yield forecasts for major crops have been reduced:

• soft wheat (the main grain crop of the EU) – from 6.0 to 5.88 t/ha, which will be 7% lower than the 2025 figure,
• grain corn – from 7.38 to 6.93 t/ha (-2% compared to the 5-year average),
• sunflower – from 2.08 to 1.94 t/ha (-2.5%),
• rapeseed (the main oilseed crop of the EU) – from 3.18 to 3.14 t/ha (-2%),
• sugar beet - up to 76.0 t/ha, which will be 7% lower than the 2025 figure.

 

The June and July heat waves led to premature grain ripening, so not only will the harvest volume decrease, but also its quality.

 

The largest crop reductions are expected in the following countries:

• Hungary – production forecast reduced compared to June from “4% below average” to “17% below average” due to the worst drought since 1991, with corn and sunflower crops being the most degraded;
• Slovakia – forecast downgraded from “moisture problems” to “disaster, winter crop production will be 10% below average”;
• France – forecast downgraded from “moderate, 0%” to “corn and sunflower harvests will be below 5-year averages”,
• Germany – forecast lowered from “positive, +4%” to “winter crops 0% (at average level), summer crops – below average.”