After oil, palm oil rose in price by 10%, and soybean oil by 5.4%
Yesterday, September Brent oil futures rose 5.1% to $106.3/barrel, and August WTI oil futures rose 5.1% to $102.6/barrel, the biggest daily gains from April 12 and from May 11, respectively. This is how the market reacted to the stoppage of gas supplies from Russia to Germany. In addition, traders do not believe in the rapid increase in oil supplies by 3 million barrels per day, which was agreed by the United States and Saudi Arabia.
September palm oil futures on the Malaysian exchange rose 10% to 3,945 ringgit/t, or $888/t, yesterday, almost reversing last week's 15.8% drop amid forecasts of a smaller harvest in the country. The market is no longer responding to Indonesia's lifting of export duties on all palm oil products until August 31 in order to boost exports and reduce stocks from 6 to 3-4 million tons, which have accumulated since the supply stoppage.
September soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 5.4% to $1,392/t yesterday, recovering from last week's losses, after a 5-week decline.
The number of U.S. soybeans in good or excellent condition for the week decreased by 1% to 61% (60% last year). August soybean futures rose by 2.1% to $550/t, and November soybean futures rose by 2.8% to $507/t on forecasts of increased heat in the US.
According to forecasts by Safras&Mercado, in FY 2022/23, Brazil may increase soybean production by 20.3% compared to the previous season, from 125.88 to 151.5 million tons, thanks to the expansion of sowing areas by 2.6% to a record 42.88 million hectares subject to favorable weather.
The increase in demand against the background of the drop in prices boosted the export of Ukrainian sunflower oil, due to which its prices rose to $1,200-1,400/t with delivery to Turkey, Poland and Bulgaria, and to $1,450-1,500/t with delivery to France and Germany. There has been a demand for container deliveries of oil to India, China and other countries, and the cost of freight for them is sometimes lower than for deliveries by motor vehicles to France or Spain.
From July 1 to 17, Ukraine exported 130,000 tons of sunflower oil, which is 12% less than in the same period in June. Of this volume, 26,000 tons were purchased by Turkey, 18,000 tons by Poland, and 15,000 tons by Bulgaria. In 2021/22 MR, the export of Ukrainian sunflower oil reached 3.96 million tons.
The export of soybeans in the period July 1-17 amounted to 61.2 thousand tons, which is 23% higher than the corresponding figure in June. In total, 1.14 million tons of soybeans were exported in 2021/22 MR. 12,700 tons of rapeseed were exported in June, 11,400 tons in July, that is, the export of the new crop amounted to 24,100 tons.
