Weak consumption creates electricity surplus and high gas reserves in Ukraine

Ukraine's energy system maintains a surplus of electricity, allowing it to actively export surpluses to neighboring EU countries. In the first 24 days of September, exports amounted to about 375 GWh, while imports were only 64 GWh, so net exports exceeded 311 GWh.

 

One reason for the surplus is the reduction in domestic consumption due to strikes on industrial, particularly energy-intensive metallurgical enterprises. This week, the minimum consumption was 6,800 MW, and the maximum was 10,200 MW.

 

In October, all 9 NPP power units with a total capacity of 7,750 MW should be operational in the system. Currently, 6 units are operating, and three more are undergoing scheduled repairs. Hydroelectric power plant production is limited by low water levels in the Dnieper and Dniester rivers, while thermal power plants and CHPs are operating at low levels due to repairs, restoration of damaged capacities, and weak demand. Coal reserves at thermal power plants are 1.7 million tons.

 

The main risk ahead of the heating season remains possible new attacks on energy infrastructure. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that Ukrainian special services have received materials on Russian plans to attack generation, heat and water supply, and interstate interconnectors.

 

The situation in the gas market also remains comfortable. Ukrainian underground gas storage reserves reached 15.6 billion m³, which is 23% more than last year and approximately 1.0 billion m³ higher than the target level of 14.6 billion m³ at the beginning of the 2026/27 OGP.

 

Gas consumption in Ukraine has dropped to 22 million m³ per day due to reduced industrial production and problems with sea exports. Current production covers consumption, and surpluses continue to be pumped into underground storage facilities.

 

At the same time, re-export of gas from bonded warehouses has intensified: deliveries to Hungary reached about 19.5 million m³/day, and to Poland — 7.2 million m³/day. ExPro previously estimated the re-export potential of Naftogaz at approximately 1.0 billion m³. The decision to open commercial exports of Ukrainian gas has not yet been made.

Gas reserves in European underground storage facilities are 75.3 billion m³, or 70% of capacity, which is 18% below the average level over the past 5 years and 15%, or 13.0 billion m³, less than last year.

 

Despite the electricity surplus, wholesale prices in Ukraine increased by 22% on weekdays last week, and the base load index reached 7,354 UAH/MWh. The average RDN price in September is 6,161 UAH/MWh compared to 5,893 UAH/MWh in August, 4,444 UAH/MWh in July, 5,599 UAH/MWh in June, 5,069 UAH/MWh in May, 5,391 UAH/MWh in April, and 7,076 UAH/MWh in March.

 

On the western border of Ukraine, weekday electricity prices increased by an average of 4% per week. In Romania, they reached €213/MWh (+13%), while in other neighboring countries they ranged from €164/MWh in Poland to €216/MWh in Hungary. The forward baseload price in Hungary for October is €205/MWh.