Reduced production support purchase prices for soybean and sunflower in Ukraine

the Purchase price of soybeans and sunflower in Ukraine almost do not react to trends in world prices of soybeans and vegetable oil, and continue to grow on the data about the harvest that confirm pessimistic forecasts.

As at 15 October in Ukraine from 5.4 million hectares or 84% of the area harvested only 10.5 million tons of sunflower seed yield of 1.94 t/ha and 917 hectares, or 68% of the area collected 1.8 million tons of soybeans on the yield of 1.96 t/ha. This confirms the predictions that the crop of sunflower will not exceed 13-13. 5 million tons and soybeans to 2.6-2.8 MMT, what increases the concern of the processors relative to the load capacity and increases speculative demand.

during the week, purchasing prices for sunflower increased by 400-600 UAH/t to 15400-15800 UAH/ton, and soy – to 14600-15200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. The increase in export prices of GMO soy in the port to 435-440 $/t or 14600-14900 UAH/t increased competition between refiners and traders. Latest for soy non-GMO offer of $450/t or 15200-15300 UAH/t at the port and 450-455 $/t at the border with Poland and Belarus.

a Decline in prices for vegetable oils, particularly palm, against the background of falling global demand has not affected prices of Ukrainian sunflower oil, which remain at the level of 950-980 $/t FOB, although a month ago I reached 1000 $/MT FOB.

In a new report, the experts of Oil World has lowered the forecast of world production of sunflower in 2020/21 MG to the lowest level in the last 3 years level of 50.9 million tons, compared with 55.8 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG, although in September USDA estimated the crop in at 51.48 million tonnes.

in Particular, for Ukraine, the forecast of sunflower crop reduced by 2 million tons to 14.5 million tons, for Russia – by 2.3 to 13 million tons, EU countries – by 0.5 to 8.9 million tons, Argentina – 0.1 to 3.1 million tons, Turkey – 0.2 up to 1.5 million tons.

In Russia as of October 19, with 7.1 million hectares or 84.2% of the areas produced 11.4 million tons of sunflower on yield of 1.6 t/ha, so the final harvest can exceed forecasts. In addition, 1.8 million hectares or 65.3% of areas harvested 3.3 million tons of soybeans with a yield of 1.8 t/ha.