Reduced supply of high-oleic sunflower oil from Ukraine leads to an increase in the premium for high-oleic sunflower
For the fifth season in a row, Ukraine has been reducing exports of high-oleic sunflower oil, and the 2024/25 MY continued this trend.
According to operational data, from September to December of the current season, exports of high-oleic sunflower oil from Ukraine decreased by 52% compared to the previous season to 57 thousand tons, which was the lowest figure in the last 7 years. In addition, the share of high-oleic oil in total sunflower oil exports decreased to 3% compared to 5-8% in previous years.
The decrease in the supply of high-oleic sunflower oil from Ukraine led to an increase in world prices and premiums for it. The main factors behind the decrease were the decrease in high-oleic sunflower production in 2024 and the restraint in sales by farmers against the background of a significant increase in the cost of classic hybrids of the crop.
Over the month, the premium for high-oleic sunflower in Ukraine increased from 2,500-3,000 UAH/t to 4,000-5,000 UAH/t compared to prices for regular sunflower, which activated offers from farmers.
Demand prices for high-oleic sunflower with an oil content of 48% and delivery to the plant have increased to 31,000-32,000 UAH/t, and the premium for increased oil content is 1,000-1,500 UAH/%.
Given the existing stocks of high-oleic sunflower seeds at producers and the likely intensification of its sales in the spring, the volumes of processing and, accordingly, exports of high-oleic oil may increase in the second half of the season.
According to the forecast of APK-Inform Agency, in 2024/25 MY, Ukraine may export 220-240 thousand tons of high-oleic sunflower oil (289 thousand tons in 2023/24 MY), which will be one of the lowest indicators in recent years.
At the same time, the increase in the cost of sunflower oil, especially high-oleic oil, as well as the increase in the premium relative to rapeseed oil on the world market may further slow down exports.
