The decline in demand continues to lower wheat quotes on world stock exchanges

The new USDA balance sheet with reduced forecasts for wheat production and final stocks surprised traders, as export forecasts for the EU and Russia were not reduced, which means that the stocks of these exporters will grow.

The market reacted to the report's data with a decline in quotations, which continued yesterday.

Export sales of wheat from the United States for January 28 – February 3 fell to 84.7 thousand tons, which is significantly lower than expert expectations. The actual weekly export amounted to 380.9 thousand tons. as a result, the MYTD export program remained at the level of 12.83 million tons to 2/3, which corresponds to 58% of the USDA forecast for the export season. Liabilities totaled up to 79% against the new forecast of 810 Mbu as of 2/3 of 637.4 Mbu.

March wheat futures fell by 1.2-1.7%, in particular:

• by 4 4.96 / ton to Чикаго 283.5/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5 5.14 / ton to H 294.3/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 4 4.22 / ton to.346.2 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Strategie Grains experts lowered their forecast for soft wheat exports from the EU in my 2021/22 by 0.8 million tons to 31.2 million tons, although the USDA in February left the estimate at 37.5 million tons. as of February 6, the EU exported 16.92 million tons of soft wheat (16.22 million tons as of this date last year), in particular France – 4.97 million tons, Romania – 4.64 million tons and Germany – 1.98 million tons.

• European wheat futures on Euronext in Paris fell by €1.25/ton to €261.5/ton or € 297.6 / ton on the European Commission's forecasts for a reduction in exports.

Prices for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday rose by 0 0.25/ton to 3 315.25/ton, but the pressure is increasing, which leads to a decrease in purchase prices in Ukraine, where food wheat is offered 2 288-290/ton or 9200-9250 UAH/ton in the port and 8400-8500 UAH/ton at the mill.

As of February 6, Ukraine exported 17.3 million tons of wheat out of the projected 24 million tons. producers are still holding back sales in anticipation of forecasts for the future harvest after the wintering of crops is completed.

According to Reuters, Egypt's wheat imports by private buyers have exceeded the volume of purchases made by the state operator, and this trend may continue as the authorities try to reform bread subsidies and reduce import costs. According to the UN FAO and two traders from the Middle East, Egypt's private buyers in 2021 increased wheat imports by 11% to 6.9 million tons compared to the previous year, and the state – owned GASC-by 32% to 4.7 million tons.