Heavy rains in Argentina improve crop conditions, but delay harvest in Brazil

Favorable weather conditions in South America continue to pressure soybean and corn prices, while drought in Ukraine keeps prices for the upcoming harvest high.

Argentina has been experiencing heavy rains for the second week in a row, improving the condition of crops and stabilizing the situation, although this cannot improve the harvest potential. A new wave of precipitation is expected across the country next week.

In Brazil, dry and warm weather over the past two weeks has allowed for the acceleration of field work. As of February 20, soybeans have been harvested on 40% of the area, and second-crop corn has been sown on 60% of the planned area. In the central state of Mato Grosso, 5-10 mm of precipitation will fall next week, which will delay planting and harvesting, but in other regions of the country, dry and warm weather will remain. Against the background of heavy rainfall, local analysts have lowered soybean production forecasts, but increased corn crop forecasts due to the accumulation of sufficient moisture reserves ahead of planting.

Dry and frosty weather has prevailed in Ukraine and the south-west of the Russian Federation this week, increasing the risk of damage to winter crops, especially rapeseed. Light snowfall is expected over the weekend, but crops in the Black Sea region need heavy rainfall before the vegetation resumes. Forecasts do not promise significant precipitation in March, so drought remains the main threat to the future harvest.

In the US, winter wheat growing regions continue to have favorable weather for sowing, with sufficient snow cover and significant moisture reserves, which will facilitate the restoration of vegetation. Next week, temperatures will rise to +5…+10°C, and a new wave of precipitation in the form of snow and rain will pass.