He expects the soybean market in the new season?

2020-06-22 13:28:20
Machine translation
He expects the soybean market in the new season?

last Two decades, the soybean market is actively growing due to an increasing demand for soybean meal from the livestock and for soybean oil from biodiesel manufacturers and the food industry.


In the last 10 years, world production of soybeans has increased annually by 2.7%, the volume of trade by 5.1%, of total harvesting area – by 1.7%, the yield is 1%. Compared to my 2009/10 global soybean production in the 2019/20 season increased by 31% to 342 million tons, the volume of trade by 65% to 152 million tonnes, the total harvesting area by 19% to 122 million hectares, the average yield by 10% to 28 C/ha.


In Ukraine, following steady growth in 2019 for the first time of the sowing area of soybean in comparison with the previous year decreased from 1,728 to 1,616 million hectares, and the harvest – from 4,461 to 3,699 million tons In 2017, the country has attracted 3,899 million tons of soybeans in 2016 – 4,28 million tons, in 2015 – to 3.93 million tons.


Even on the background of the changes on VAT refunds exports of soybeans in 2019/20 Mr went at a record pace and increased in comparison with the previous season by 6% to 2.7 million tons Due to reduced crop carryover stocks of soybeans in 2019/20 MG will reach a record low of 37.5 thousand tons.


Despite the decline in soybean processing in 2019/20 MG in comparison with the previous season by 18%, refiners are experiencing a shortage of raw materials, and some even began to import cheaper than domestic, South American soy. Therefore the import of olives from 1.4 thousand tonnes in 2018/19 MG will grow in 2019/20 MG to 30 thousand tons.


Russian market of soybean developed more actively. Over the last 10 years of total harvesting area of soybean increased annually by 13.4% and the yield is 2.8% gross yield – 17.3% and reached in 2019 record levels. Compared to 2009, in season 2019/20, the area planted increased by 3.5 times to 3.08 million hectares, yield by 32% to 15.7 kg/ha, the yield – to 4.36 million tons.


According to the June USDA estimates, world production of oilseed crops in 2020/21 MG compared to 2019/20 MG will grow by 5.4%, and in particular soy by 8.2% to 362,85 million tons, primarily due to the increase in yield in the United States and South America.


After a sharp drop in demand for feed in China, caused by the outbreak of ASF, it is restored very slowly, so the global demand for soy meal for the year will grow by only 3.3% to 244,2 million tonnes, and sunflower – 1.8% to 22.4 million tons.


Experts believe that even a few months the price of oilseeds will remain under pressure from falling world economy, the decline of which is in 2020. will, according to IMF estimates, 3%. In the near future in world trade of oilseeds to influence Covid-19, and recovery will start only after the incidence will decline.