Rural Bank has raised its wheat and canola export forecasts for Australia

In 2023/24, Australia will export 20 million tons of wheat, 7.6 million tons of barley, and 5.8 million tons of canola, Grain Cental reports.

 

Rural Bank experts believe that the high pace of shipments may complicate the situation in the event of unforeseen events in the second half of 2024. And rising prices and concerns about the Russian harvest allowed sales to intensify.

 

According to experts' forecasts, the export of wheat from the countries of Western Europe and the Black Sea region will decrease by 20-25 million tons, therefore, in the long term, wheat prices may rise, although in the near future they will remain stable against the background of harvesting a new crop.

 

China's removal of the barley tariff will boost its supply from Australia, so exports could reach 7.6mt, while domestic consumption will be 6mt and carryover stocks will be very low. The El Nino weather phenomenon prevents a good harvest.

 

In the EU, barley production will reach a 4-year maximum of 53.8 million tons, and exports will increase compared to the previous season by 12% to 7.3 million tons. Therefore, in 2024/25, the EU countries will become the main world exporter of barley.

 

Canola exports from Australia in FY 2023/24 amounted to 5.8-6 million tons, and in FY 2024/25 it will decrease to 4.5 million tons compared to the record 6 million tons of the 2022/23 season. The EU will reduce purchases of Australian canola amid increased supplies from Ukraine and Canada. In addition, competition between rapeseed and palm oil is intensifying.

 

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in May, compared to April, the country increased its export of rapeseed by 4% from 647.7 to 676.7 thousand tons, while in the first half of 2023, exports amounted to only 503.7 thousand tons.

 

In May, Pakistan unexpectedly became the largest buyer of Australian rapeseed, purchasing 181,300 tons of oil. The next positions are occupied by Japan (132.8 thousand tons) and Belgium (122.5 thousand tons).

 

The export of grain legumes from Australia in 2023/24 MR amounted to 1.1 million tons, with the largest part of it being lentils.

 

Improved conditions for canola crops in Canada will increase competition from new crop canola in Australia, but reduced canola production in Ukraine and the EU will increase demand for the old crop.