Russian attacks could cut Ukraine's grain exports by a third

Increased attacks on Ukrainian seaports, ships, and logistics infrastructure could reduce Ukraine's grain exports by almost a third, industry representatives and grain terminal operators say.

 

According to market participants, monthly grain exports could drop from approximately 6 million tons to 4 million tons. The greatest risks are associated with the operation of the ports of Greater Odessa, through which the bulk of the country's agricultural exports pass.

 

Alternative routes through Danube ports are not able to fully compensate for the possible reduction in transshipment due to high logistics costs and limited capacity.

 

Experts note that the agricultural sector remains one of the key sources of foreign exchange earnings for Ukraine. Therefore, any disruptions in exports can negatively affect both farmers and the country's economy as a whole.

 

An additional consequence could be an increase in domestic grain stocks ahead of the new harvest. According to market participants, grain reserves in Ukraine could reach 9.5 million tons by July 1, significantly exceeding the figures of previous years. Excess supply on the domestic market could increase pressure on purchase prices during the harvest.

 

Ukraine remains one of the world's largest grain exporters, accounting for about 6% of global wheat trade and 11% of global corn trade. Therefore, any problems with Ukrainian exports could affect not only the domestic but also the global grain market.