Russian wheat replaces European wheat in the markets of Africa and the Middle East

In 2023/24 FY, wheat supplies from the EU to the countries of North Africa decreased by 25%, and to the Middle East - by 60%, while the Russian Federation is increasing its grain exports to these regions. This is according to USDA's FAS Grains: World Markets and Trade report released in April.

European wheat is losing its traditional markets in the countries of North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East due to very strong competition from Russian wheat, due to which the export forecast for the EU in the current season has been reduced by 2 million tons to 34.5 million tons, and for of the Russian Federation increased by 1 million tons to 52 million tons.

Record wheat harvests in the Russian Federation improve its competitiveness in the African and Middle Eastern markets. If earlier almost 95% of the volume of wheat imported to Saudi Arabia was European grain, in 2023/24 the country began to actively buy Russian wheat due to its low price.

A similar situation occurred in Algeria, where 5 years ago, 85% of the market was occupied by durum wheat from Canada and flour wheat from the EU, in particular France, Germany and the Baltic countries. But the government of the country, in order to diversify grain suppliers, lowered the phytosanitary requirements for the content of pests (turtle bug), after which wheat from the Russian Federation began to be supplied to the country's market in 2020. According to Rusagrotrans estimates, in 2023/24, the Russian Federation can export about 3 million tons of wheat to Algeria.

According to the forecast of the Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters, E. Zernin, by the end of 2023/24, Russia's share of the world grain market will exceed 25%. At the same time, dependence on the three largest buyers (Turkey, Egypt and Iran) will decrease, as deliveries to new sales markets will increase.