Sharp decline in EU sunflower harvest forecast supports high sunflower prices at the start of the season in Ukraine and contributes to rising rapeseed prices

Analyst firm Expana has sharply cut its EU sunflower production forecast by 1.1 million tonnes to 8.3 million tonnes (from 8.7 million tonnes last year) due to adverse weather in Bulgaria and Romania. The intense heat in southern Europe damaged maturing spring crops, including maize and sunflower, while also helping winter rapeseed and wheat harvests.

The projected reduction in sunflower production in the EU will lead to a supply deficit, which, according to analysts, will be compensated for by processors by increased supplies of rapeseed.

Expana analysts have increased the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2025/26 MY from 19.6 to 20 million tons (compared to 16.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY) due to good harvests in France, Poland, Romania, and Hungary.

Prices for sunflower oil in August at the bases of northern European ports reached $1,280-1,300/t, and according to the trading platform Trading Economics, prices for sunflower oil delivered to buyers increased by 4.2% to $1,335/t over the month.

This increased the demand for sunflower in Ukraine, and its prices at the end of August reached 27,500-28,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

After the start of the harvest, the demand prices for sunflower decreased from September 1 to the levels of 26,500-27,000 UAH/t (oil content 50%) or $560-570/t excluding VAT, but the low yield in the south will keep sunflower prices high for a month (until the start of mass harvesting).

Rapeseed quotes on the Paris stock exchange fell 1.7% in the month to a 4-month low of €467.25/t or $546/t under pressure from a 7% monthly drop in Canadian canola prices (due to a ban on imports to China), but demand from processors remains high as they expect reduced sunflower supplies.

Demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain high due to demand from processors who want to maximize production with rapeseed amid a shortage of sunflower supplies, so they offer 23,500-24,500 UAH/t for rapeseed with delivery to the factory, which is significantly lower than prices for sunflower and allows for a better processing margin.

Exporters are also trying to purchase the largest possible volumes of Ukrainian non-GMO rapeseed for delivery to the EU, and are offering $530-545/t for it with delivery to Black Sea ports, since canola supplies from Canada (which is much cheaper and costs about $460/t) will not be possible before October-November (the discount for GMO rapeseed is $20-30/t), and from Australia - can only begin in December, and then in smaller volumes due to increased purchases by China.