A sharp increase in the forecast of the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation by the SovEkon agency increased the pressure on stock market quotations

World wheat prices remain under pressure from news about the harvest in the Russian Federation, whose share in world wheat exports last year was 28%.

Global quotations rose by 30% based on forecasts of a reduction in the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in April-May, and a new adjustment of estimates led to a decrease in prices.

According to Rusagrotrans analysts, in 2023/24 the Russian Federation exported 55.4 million tons of wheat, and the share of Russian wheat in world exports increased to 28% compared to 25% in 2022/23. Export prices for July delivery of Russian 12.5% protein wheat fell $10/t for the week to $222/t FOB, while French wheat was offered at $238/t, German at $244/t and US – at $222/t FOB.

Against the backdrop of improved weather conditions in spring wheat growing regions and the first harvest data, the Russian agency SovEkon yesterday increased the forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation in 2024/25 MR by 3.4 million tons to 84.1 million tons, while USDA experts in June lowered their forecast for the Russian Federation from 88 to 83 million tons.

According to operational data, in the Rostov region, early cereals were harvested on 22% of the area with an average yield of 3.6 t/ha, in the Stavropol Territory - on 53% of the area with an average yield of 3.56 t/ha, which is slightly lower than last year. In the Krasnodar region, winter wheat has been harvested on 50% of the area, and the average yield is 6.5 t/ha, which corresponds to last year's figure. Almost 83% of the examined wheat has food quality.

July wheat futures fell again yesterday:

• by 1.3% to $203.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2% to $213.7/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.1% to $228.18/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1.7% to €223.25/t or $240.8/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext.