Sharp increase in flax exports from Kazakhstan increases pressure on prices of this crop in Ukraine and the EU
According to the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, in June, flax exports from the country increased by 17.1% compared to May to 83.5 thousand tons, and in total, over the 10 months of the 2025/26 MY, they grew 2.41 times compared to the corresponding period of the previous season to a record 1.16 million tons, which is 2.2 times higher than the total export volume of the 2024/25 MY.
Compared to the previous season, deliveries to the following countries increased significantly:
- China – 2.5 times to 456.2 thousand tons,
- Belgium – 1.9 times to 330.7 thousand tons,
- Afghanistan – 3.06 times to 116.9 thousand tons,
- Poland – 3.2 times to 102.3 thousand tons,
- Uzbekistan – by 44.3% to 20.2 thousand tons.
- Germany – by 18% to 13.5 thousand tons,
- Czech Republic – by 1.2%.
The increase in exports to the EU is due to the increase in the import duty on Russian flax in the EU to 20% in 2025 and to 50% in 2026.
In the first 10 months of the 2025/26 MY, the share of the main buyers of Kazakh flax - Belgium and China - amounted to 67.8% of the total export volume (28.5% and 39.3%, respectively).
Prices for oil flax with delivery to EU countries were €600-700/t in the spring, but in three months they decreased to €480-520/t DAP Poland / Czech Republic and €530-570/t DAP Belgium / Germany, depending on the quality (yellow or brown, oil content 40-42%).
The premium for yellow (golden) flax is 20-50 €/t compared to brown due to high demand in the EU food segment.
Ukraine harvested about 66,000 tons of flax in 2025/26 MY (the largest volume since 2017/18 MY), of which 80% or 50-55,000 tons will be exported, mainly to EU countries (Belgium, Italy, Poland, Germany and France). Demand prices for Ukrainian flax are 470-490 €/t DAP - western border.
After introducing customs restrictions on Russian flax, the European Union is actively replacing it with Ukrainian, Kazakhstani, and Canadian flax.
