Sharp speculative increase in wheat quotes in the US will support prices in Ukraine

Last week , abnormally high temperatures of up to 10-15 ^° C prevailed in the main wheat growing regions of the USA , which led to the loss of soil moisture and a speculative increase in wheat quotes by 3.1-3.6% per week, with winter wheat quotes in Chicago increasing by 9% per month. The increase in quotes was also facilitated by the first forecasts of a decrease in the sown area and wheat production in the USA in 2026.

Yesterday, quotes fell by 0.7-2% as speculators started to book profits after the weekend rainfall in the US, which will continue for another week. However, dry conditions and risks of returning frosts in the near future will maintain speculative pressure on quotes.

During the week, March wheat futures rose:

• by 3.6% to $209.3/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (+9% per month),
• by 3.1% to $205.8/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+5.7%),
• by 2.8% to $214/t HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis (+5.5%),
• by 2.9% to €197/t or $230.8/t - for wheat on Euronext in Paris (+3.1%).

A sharp increase in US wheat exports during February 12-19 by 42% to 535 thousand tons failed to significantly support quotes. Total US wheat exports in 2025/26 MY reached 18.24 million tons, which is 19.4% higher than last year's pace, but given the average export pace of about 2 million tons per month, by the end of the season (June 1) the US will be able to export another 6 million tons and reach the USDA forecast of 24.5 million tons (compared to 22.5 million tons in 2024/25 MY).

During the week in Ukraine, export purchase prices for food wheat increased by another 50 UAH/t to 10,550–10,650 UAH/t or $215–218/t, while prices for feed wheat remained at the level of 10,250–10,300 UAH/t or $208–209/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Wheat exports from Ukraine for 20 days of February amounted to only 328 thousand tons (compared to 910 thousand tons for the same period last year), and in total for the season reached 8.82 million tons, which is 33% lower than last year's pace. To reach the USDA's forecast of 14 million tons, it is necessary to export about 1 million tons of wheat every month, which will become realistic when farmers are convinced that winter wheat has survived the winter without significant losses.

The increase in wheat stock quotes has not yet affected the prices of Black Sea wheat, as supply continues to increase amid a seasonal decline in demand from importers who are evaluating their own harvest, which in North African countries may be better than last year due to rainfall .

It should be noted that the latest increase in quotations has reduced the difference between prices for the old and new harvest from $4-5/t to $2-3/t, as the harvest in the Black Sea region and the EU is forecast to be at last year's level or even higher.