Sharp reduction in exports of oilseeds and processed products from the Russian Federation
Total export volumes from the Russian Federation for January–May 2025:
|
Category |
Volume (million tons) |
Δ to 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
Oilseeds |
1,071 |
-22% |
|
Vegetable oils |
2.72 |
-19% |
|
Meals |
1.65 |
-10% |
Oilseeds (seeds)
|
Culture |
Volume (thousand tons) |
Δ to 2024 |
Main buyers |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunflower |
120 |
-7% |
>85% to the EAEU countries |
|
Soy |
268 |
-35% |
China (184 thousand tons) |
|
Rapeseed |
242 |
-18% |
Belarus (183), China (49) |
|
Linen |
422 |
-15% |
China (324), Belgium (34) |
Vegetable oils
|
Type of oil |
Volume (million tons) |
Δ to 2024 |
Share in exports |
Main buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunflower |
1.87 |
-25% |
68% |
Turkey (456), India (402) |
|
Soybean |
0.227 |
-38% |
Algeria (100), India (78) |
|
|
Rapakova |
0.624 |
+26% |
China (>88% of total) |
Reasons for the fall :
- Negative processing margin.
- High domestic prices for raw materials.
- Declining global demand.
Meals
|
Type of meal |
Volume (thousand tons) |
Δ to 2024 |
Main buyers |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunflower |
1,100 |
-7% |
Turkey (449), Belarus (301) |
|
Soy |
221 |
-52% |
Belarus (76), Uzbekistan (44) |
|
Rapeseed |
329 |
+85% |
China (221), Turkey (33) |
Current situation and forecasts
- Sunflower seed prices in the Russian Federation are still not profitable for processing , even after decreasing to the optimal level of 36,000 rubles/t . The margin is still -16% .
- Sunflower stocks in Ukraine are over 2 million tons , which also increases pressure on prices in the region.
- Argentina — bankruptcy of the largest processor -> more reserves, less global demand.
- USDA forecast : global sunflower harvest in 2025/26 will increase to 56.2 million tons (+4.3 million tons), mainly in the Black Sea region and the EU.
- Sunflower seed prices could drop significantly by the end of the season , and the decline is likely to continue in the new marketing year.
- Competition from cheap rapeseed and palm oil will worsen the position of sunflower oil.
