The wheat market has not yet reacted to the reduction of the production forecast in the USDA report

2018-10-12 12:12:00
Machine translation
The wheat market has not yet reacted to the reduction of the production forecast in the USDA report

In its October report, the USDA forecast the world production of wheat in 2018/19 Mr reduced by 2.08 million tonnes to 730,92 million tonnes, which is by 27.82 million tons lower than in 2017/18 MG. Production estimate lowered for Australia by 1.5 million tonnes and Russia at 1 million tonnes, but raised for the United States to 210 thousand tons.


the reduction in the feed use forecast world consumption of wheat was reduced to 460 thousand tons to 745,6 million tonnes, which is still by 4.45 million tons exceeds the level of last season.


Evaluation world exports of wheat was reduced to 990 thousand tons to 180,4 million tonnes, which is 870 thousand tons will yield export 2017/18 MG. The adjustment is done entirely by Australia, which cut exports by 1 million tons.


Forecast ending inventory of wheat was reduced by 1.11 million tonnes to 260,18 million tonnes against 274,85 million tonnes in 2017/18 season. Most stock will be reduced in Russia by 1 million tons and Australia – 600 thousand t


Despite market expectations, the estimate of wheat production in Russia reduced by 1 million tonnes to 70 million tonnes, a 17.7% yield of the harvest 2017/18 MG. But the export forecast unchanged at 35 million tonnes, while the agriculture Ministry estimates it at 25 million tons.


  • Due to the increase in the forecast of wheat exports from France, December futures on milling wheat in Paris rose by 0.75 €/t to 203,5 €/t or 235,97 $/t


As trading in Paris ended before the release of the USDA report, the reaction of the European market will be known only today.


For the market U.S. wheat the October USDA report was bearish, therefore, the forecast decline in world production traders are not took into account that the soft wheat futures in Chicago fell to a 1.5-week low.


the Experts at the USDA increased the estimate of wheat production in the United States by 210 thousand tons, the forecast of ending stocks – to 580 thousand tons, while the consumption level was reduced by 270 tonnes


December futures for the American wheat has fallen:

0,92 $/t to 188,77 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

0.83 $/t to 216,60 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 0,92 $/t to 186,65 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

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