The corn market shocked "bearish" USDA report
Experts USDA in the September balance of supply and demand of corn shocked the market a sharp increase in yields and gross harvest of corn for the United States, while analysts forecast a decline in these figures compared to the August estimates.
This was the reason for the sharp drop in December corn futures in Chicago 3.9% to $140/t
the USDA increased the forecast of corn yield in the U.S. by 2.9 bushels/acre to a record 181,3 bushel/acre or of 11,37 t/ha, although leading analytical agencies forecast a decline in yields of up to 177 bushels /acre vs. the August assessment 178,4 bushels/acre. Due to the increase in the yield forecast corn production in the U.S. increased by 6 million tonnes to almost record levels 376,6 million tonnes, 5.6 million tonnes will exceed the crop of last year, and contrary to the forecasts of analysts with an average rating 368,5 million tons.
World corn production will increase by 8 million tons to 1,069 billion tons, primarily due to the United States. Suddenly increased forecast corn production for the EU by 1 million tons to 60.8 million tonnes against the background of forecasts of European analysts about the decline in harvest through drought conditions. Forecast corn imports to the EU also increased by 1.5 million tonnes to 19.5 million tonnes.
according to a new forecast by the USDA, global consumption of corn compared to the August estimate will grow by 7.2 million tonnes to 1106,12 million tons (2017/18 - 1067,3 million tons), which offsets the increase in production will lead to a slight increase in carryover from 155,5 million tons to 157 million tons (2017/18 - 194,15 million tons).
corn Prices will remain under pressure, demand, and the basic struggle for buyers will lead the United States, who need to export 60 million tonnes, and Ukraine, for which the export potential is estimated at 25 million tons, as Argentina and Brazil have already completed the sale of corn of the old crop, but new they are harvested only in March and April.