Russia may push Ukraine into the corn market in Turkey

Turkey's role as one of the main buyers of Ukrainian corn in the 2025/26 MY has come under question. This was discussed at the Trend&Hedge Club meeting, ASAP Agri reports.

Market participants suggest that, against the backdrop of increasing corn production, the Russian Federation may increase its share in the Turkish market, reducing Ukraine's presence.

So far, demand from Turkey is still strong. For the November-December shipment, the offer prices are $230-232/t CIF Marmara, while in early August they did not exceed $225/t. The price increase is explained by the increase in the price of corn on the domestic market of Turkey. At the same time, traders are cautious, as they expect prices to decrease after the late but large harvest from Ukraine enters the market. Ukrainian suppliers keep prices at $234-236/t CIF Marmara, but trade remains sluggish due to the lack of new import quotas with reduced or zero duties.

The situation is also complicated by the forecast of a decline in import demand. According to USDA, in the 2025/26 MY, Turkey will import about 3.3 million tons of corn, compared to 5.7 million tons a year earlier. Production will increase compared to the previous season from 7.1 to 7.9 million tons.

Local estimates are even more optimistic. “In Central Anatolia, in the Konya region, the harvest has not yet started, which is the largest production region. We expect only minor losses. My estimate for production remains at 8.2 million tons, and imports are around 3 million tons,” said Koray Tuysüzoğlu, CEO of Erser Group.