Record sunflower harvest in Russia could lead to falling prices in Kazakhstan

According to analysts' forecasts, in 2026, sunflower production in the Russian Federation may increase compared to the previous year from 17.5-17.8 million tons to a record 19-21 million tons due to favorable weather conditions and an increase in the sown area to almost 12 million hectares.

 

This will lead to lower sunflower prices in Kazakhstan and increase competition between producers and processors.

 

The National Association of Exporters KazGrain believes that due to limited export and processing opportunities, Russian exporters may increase sunflower supplies to Kazakhstan, since duties on Russian raw materials are not applied within the EAEU. Kazakh processors will receive cheap raw materials, and local farmers will receive lower purchase prices.

 

To support its own producers, Kazakhstan may impose a ban on Russian sunflower imports, but such a move will only support prices for a short time. Expensive domestic raw materials will make it difficult for Kazakhstani processors to compete with Russian ones on the global sunflower oil market.

 

Additionally, the possibility of Kazakhstan abolishing the export duty on sunflower is being considered, which will allow it to increase supplies to China, Uzbekistan and other countries and support domestic prices. At the same time, such a step will intensify competition for raw materials among processors and increase their costs. In addition, the abolition of the export duty may create risks for the financial stability of factories, since it was this duty that contributed to the development of processing over the past few years.