Record wheat harvest in Argentina creates logistical problems and puts pressure on prices

In the 2025/26 MY, Argentina may harvest a record wheat harvest, according to analysts at the consulting company Expana.

Experts from the Rosario Grain Exchange have raised their forecast for wheat production in the country to 27.7 million tons, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) has raised its forecast from 25.5 million tons to 27.1 million tons, and note that estimates may be revised as the harvesting campaign progresses.

The number of threshed crops increased by 13% to 73.3% in the last week. Such a generous harvest creates logistical problems and increases pressure on wheat prices.

The harvest is so large that there is a real race to transport the grain to export points. Farmers are eager to quickly clear out warehouses and prepare space for new shipments. As a result, grain deliveries by truck to the river terminal in Rosario reached a record 2 million tons in November, almost double the usual volume of recent years.

Large harvest volumes are putting pressure on prices, with Argentine wheat for January delivery being offered at $206-209/t FOB, making it more competitive compared to deliveries from the Black Sea region, France and the US. This is already stimulating active demand from international buyers.

According to market data, China's state-owned agricultural company Cofco International purchased about 65,000 tons of wheat from Argentina this week, marking the first significant commercial shipment between Argentina and China since the 1990s and effectively opening a new era in trade between the countries.

Despite some concerns about the quality of the crop, the market is generally receptive to the large supply, and competitive prices are attracting international operators. Experts note that Argentina is strengthening its role as one of the key suppliers of wheat on the world market.