Record oilseed harvest in Russia of up to 39–40 million tons may increase pressure on world prices

The gross harvest of the main oilseed crops in the Russian Federation in 2026, excluding the occupied territories, could reach a record 39–40 million tons compared to 34.4 million tons in 2025, i.e. an increase of approximately 4–5 million tons.

Oilseed acreage also reached a historic high — 22.5 million hectares excluding new regions and 23.2 million hectares including them, which is 4% more than last year.

According to the RUSEED analytical center, the sunflower harvest is forecast at 20.6–21 million tons compared to 17.5 million tons last year.

Soybean production is expected to be 8.6–8.8 million tons versus 9 million tons, rapeseed — 7.4–7.8 million tons versus 5.5 million tons, and oilseed flax — 1.9–2 million tons.

Against the backdrop of a sharp increase in supply, vegetable oil production in the 2026/27 season could increase to 12 million tons.

As of September 29, oilseed crops in the Russian Federation were harvested from approximately 8 million hectares, or 34% of the area, and 13.8 million tons were threshed, which corresponds to the level of last year.

Sunflower harvesting is lagging behind due to the late start of the sowing campaign, but the yield is still higher than last year. The largest expansion of oilseed areas is observed in the Volga region, the Urals, and Siberia.

At the same time, the blockade of Azov and Black Sea ports has sharply limited the export of processed products. In September, sunflower oil exports from the Russian Federation amounted to only 5 thousand tons, compared to over 200 thousand tons in September 2025.

The combination of a record harvest and limited export opportunities could lead to the accumulation of significant raw material stocks and a further decline in domestic purchase prices.

Cheaper raw materials will allow Russian processors to more aggressively reduce export prices for sunflower oil and increase competition with Ukrainian products on world markets, especially in the second half of the season.

Therefore, the expected increase in the production of sunflower, rapeseed and vegetable oils in the Russian Federation may become one of the key factors putting pressure on world prices of oilseeds and their processed products in the 2026/27 MY.