Record palm oil exports constrains the price of soybean and sunflower oil
According to analysts, the USDA, in season 2017/18, the volume of palm oil exports from Indonesia may reach a record 26.5 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes more than the previous official forecasts by the USDA and the maximum in the history of the rate of exports at 25.9 million tonnes, which was achieved in 2014/15. Increasing exports will occur due to increased production to a record 36.5 million tons and the increased demand for palm oil due to increase the difference between the price of soy and sunflower oil.
last year, the price of palm oil was 700 $/ton, and soybean and sunflower oil was trading in the range of 750-800 $/t
the Price of palm oil on the Malaysian stock exchange last week increased by 20 $/t and reached the level of 620 $/t for deliveries in September. At the same time on the Chicago stock exchange, the price of soybean oil fell by $10/MT to 760$/t, and sunflower increased by 10 $/t In Europe of sunflower oil rose to 800-810 $/t, and in Ukraine - up to 750 $/t
the Difficult weather conditions in growing areas of soybean in the U.S. continue to keep the market in suspense. IGS reduced the estimate of soybean production from 348 to 345 million tons, but the forecast of growth of consumption increased to 350 million tons (compared to 339 million tons in 2016/17 MG). Therefore, an important factor will be information about transitional balances at the beginning of the season, which will be published in the August USDA report.