Wheat quotations for the week decreased by 4.8-6.4%

Wheat futures fell another 4.8-6.4% last week against the background of favorable weather in the USA and the EU, as well as the continued operation of the grain corridor.

Prices were not supported even by the reduction by IGC experts in the forecast of world wheat production in 2023/24 compared to April estimates by 5 million tons to 782.7 million tons (803 million tons in 2022/23), in particular for the EU - from 137.8 to 136.8 (133.8) million tons and the USA - from 49.4 to 45.2 (44.9) million tons.

At the same time, IGC analysts increased the forecast of world wheat exports from 193.1 to 194 (199.6) million tons, in particular for Canada - from 25 to 26 (24.4) million tons, the EU - from 36 to 36.3 (33.9 ) million tons, the Russian Federation - from 42.2 to 43.7 (45.1) million tons, although they lowered the estimate of exports to the USA - from 21.8 to 20.3 (20.8) million tons, Ukraine - from 11, 5 to 11 (15.5) million tons and Australia - from 21.5 to 21 (29.9) million tons.

The estimate of world wheat reserves in 2023/24 MR was reduced by 6 to 271 million tons (282.9 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for Australia – from 2.2 to 1.7 (2.8) million tons, Canada - from 5.2 to 4.3 (4.5) million tons, the Russian Federation - from 11.8 to 11.6 (16.5) million tons, and the USA - from 16.8 to 15 (16.7) million tons , while stock estimates were increased for China - from 143 to 143.5 (140.2) million tons and EU countries - from 17.4 to 17.7 (19) million tons.

July wheat futures fell on Friday:

• by 1% to $222.3/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.8% for the week),
• by 4.1% to $302.9/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-6.4%).
• by 3.1% to $295.4/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-5.2%),
• by 0.1% to $262/t - for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (-1.4%).
• by 0.1% to €222.5/t or $240/t - September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-5.5%).

The wheat market is supported by the intensification of wheat imports to China, which in April amounted to 1.68 million tons, which is twice as high as in April 2022, and in general since the beginning of the year reached 6.03 million tons and was 61% ahead of last year's pace of deliveries.