Wheat quotations for the week rose significantly on forecasts of a decline in the harvest in the EU and the Russian Federation

Wheat prices on world exchanges, after falling on Monday to record low levels during the following sessions, rose by 3.9-6.3% on forecasts of a decrease in the harvest in the EU and the Russian Federation, but are still 1.3-7% inferior to the level of prices at the end of July .

The European Commission lowered the forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 from 120.8 to 116.1 million tons (125 million tons in 2023/24). The export forecast was reduced from 32 to 26 million tons (35.1 million tons in 2023/24 MR).

According to the forecast of the MSG of Germany, as a result of excessive rainfall, the production of wheat in the country will decrease by 12.7% compared to the previous season to 18.8 million tons, and the quality of the grain will deteriorate, in particular, the protein content will decrease.

The Argus agency predicts that in 2024/25, France will export 4.1 million tons of wheat outside the EU, compared to 10 million tons on average over 5 years.

SovEkon experts reduced the wheat harvest forecast in the Russian Federation by 0.8 to 82.5 million tons due to lower than expected yields in the Center and the Volga region.

September futures fell:

• by 1.4% to $195.75/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+6.2% for the week, -1.3% for the month),
• by 1.3% to $203/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+6.3%, -1.4%),
• by 2% to $210.8/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+3.9%, -3.6%),
• by 1.7% to €205.75/t or $227.27/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+5.8%, -7%).

Exchanges will continue to react to updated wheat balances this week, and traders will switch to trading December futures, which are currently trading 2.2-5.2% higher than September futures.