Wheat quotations fell by 2.3-3.5% against the background of an increase in the harvest forecast for the Russian Federation

Despite abnormal heat in Ukraine and southeastern Europe, which may reduce the yield of spring wheat, wheat prices fell on data from the USDA report and forecasts of an increase in production forecasts in the Russian Federation by local agencies.

The IKAR company increased the forecast of the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation by 1.2 to 83.2 million tons, although MSG left its forecast at the level of 86 million tons compared to 92 million tons last year.

Wheat quotations for the week fell by 3.2-6.3%, in particular for yesterday - by 2.3-3.5% against the background of the improvement of the condition of crops and an active harvesting campaign.

In the USA, on July 14, winter wheat was harvested on 71% of the area (62% on average over 5 years), and its yield is higher than last year. The number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 2% to 77% (51% last year).

September wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 3.5% to $195.66/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.9% for the week),
• by 2.3% to $204.1/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3.2%).
• by 3% to $213.4/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-6.3%),
• by 3% to €213.5/t or $232.6/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-3.6%).

News about bad weather in France has not yet supported prices. According to FranceAgriMer, on July 8, wheat was harvested on only 4% of the area (+3% for the week), compared to 26% on this date last year and 19% on average over 5 years. And the number of crops in good or excellent condition is only 57% (58% a week ago, 80% last year). Crop conditions are now at their worst in 4 years, as prolonged rains and a lack of sunlight slow the drying of moisture in the fields.

In Ukraine, on July 12, 5.7 million tons of wheat were harvested from 34% of the area or 1.509 million hectares with a yield of 3.77 tons/ha, while the yield and quality of wheat differs from region to region. Due to the heat up to 35-42 ^o C, the humidity of wheat dropped to 9-10%, which has already reduced the nature and can worsen the protein content.

Farmers are restraining sales of wheat, which, against the background of high export demand and rising dollar exchange rate, keeps prices at a high level, even despite the decline in global quotations. For food wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports, they offer UAH 8,800-9,200/t or $190-195/t, for feed wheat - UAH 8,000-8,300/t or $175-180/t.

According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, as of July 10, 5.85 million hectares or 92.9% of the planned area were sown with wheat in Argentina, from which 20.5 million tons are planned to be harvested, which will be 3% less than the 2023/24 MR harvest of 21 million tons Lack of precipitation and low temperatures worsened the condition of crops, although 97.2% of wheat crops were initially in good and excellent condition.